Page 81 - AEI Insights 2018 Vol 4 Issue 1

Opinion
THE US WITHDRAWAL FROM THE PARIS CLIMATE
AGREEMENT: WHAT LIES AHEAD AND WHO FILLS THE
VACUUM?

Sameer Kumar

Asia-Europe Institute, University of Malaya, Malaysia

sameer@um.edu.my

1 Today, the US pulled out of the Paris Climate Agreement, citing that it would undermine its
economy, take away jobs, pose litigation risks, and put the US in a permanent disadvantageous
position vis-a-vis other countries. By doing so, President Trump was fulfilling his election
promise to support the nation’s coal industry, and had the Trump administration not exited the
accord, it would have come into imminent direct conflict with the promise he made to the
people during the campaign. Hence, the exit was expected.

Trump’s argument is that even if all signatory nations fully complied with the Paris agreement,
it would only reduce global warming by a tiny fraction of a percentage by 2100, a gain which
could be wiped out in just 14 days of carbon emission by China. The Trump administration
saw no benefit in an accord that required billions of dollars in Green Climate Fund commitment
to support developing nations, while requiring the US to shut down its own coal plants and at
the same time allowing countries like China and India to continue and even build new ones.
However, these claims appear to be exaggerated, as it was the past US Obama administration
that had submitted an individual plan for the steps it would undertake to tackle greenhouse gas
emissions, and not something that was imposed by Paris. Under that pact, the countries could
alter their plans if a country’s internal circumstances demanded such flexibility.
The ASEAN region has suffered from the impacts of global warming, which has affected its
biodiversity, health, and energy and water security, among other things. The ASEAN nations
signed the Paris agreement on 22 April 2016 and through INDCs (Intended Nationally
Determined Contributions) pledged to regularly communicate the steps they would take (or
have taken) to reduce the effects of climate change in their countries. The ASEAN nations have
noted that climate change should be in accordance with broader Sustainable Development
Goals (SDGs). SDGs, an initiative of the UN, consists of 17 goals that include ending hunger
and poverty, ensuring healthy lives, providing quality education, combating climate change,
and preservation of forests and oceans.

Back in America, withdrawal has found support. Just a few days back, 22 Republicans in a
joint letter had urged Trump to withdraw from the accord, as they felt that in its current format
it undermined US interests. However, those in favour of the accord (and most are) have
rejected’s Trump rationale and have rather emphasised that while keeping the climate safe,
clean energy would also improve the economy and create millions of jobs. Additionally, it
would be cheaper than conventional energy sources. However, the Trump administration feels
that the US needs all forms of energy in addition to renewable sources to meet its energy
demands should the economy grow by over 3 – 4 %. Trump is ready to renegotiate the
agreement, but with Macron and others coming strongly against it, renegotiations are unlikely.

1 Written on June 1 2017, the day US exited the Paris Climate agreement. The Opinion piece was originally
hosted on the AEI website. First published here.