Page 71 - AEI Insights 2019 - Vol. 5, Issue 1
P. 71

Ziegenhain, 2019


               Another important issue is that there are regional diversities in terms of demography in both
               countries. Generally, the more rural and less developed parts of both countries (in Indonesia
               particularly  the  Eastern  islands  or  Kelantan/Terengganu  in  Malaysia)  have  a  significantly
               higher birth rate than the more developed urban areas (such as Java). Mass internal migration
               into urban areas or rising contradictions between centre and periphery might occur.
               Migration  from  other  countries  will  also  affect  the  population  policies  in  both  countries.
               Malaysia will continue to see an influx of (mostly relatively unskilled) labour migrants from
               many South and Southeast Asian countries including Indonesia. Many of them have the target
               to live permanently there and/or become Malaysian citizens as the socio-economic situation is
               regarded as more favourable than that of their country of origin. Indonesia, in contrast, will
               have a continued outflow of (mostly relatively unskilled) labour to its neighbour countries and
               the Middle East.
               It  is  not  yet  well  researched  to  what  extent  all these  demographic  changes  will  affect  the
               cornerstones  of  political  order  and  regime  stability  in  both  societies.  Indonesia’s  fragile
               democracy, which is the second largest in the world after India, will probably deal better with
               the demographic challenges in political terms than Malaysia. The more pluralistic national
               political landscape and the high degree of local autonomy in a highly decentralized political
               system are more prone to adapt to societal pressures than the more centralized power structures
               in the neighbour country.
               In  Malaysia,  which  is  a  semi-democracy  or  a  half-authoritarian  political  system,  the
               demographic changes will bring probably some regime instability as politics is dominated by
               race-based political parties. The economically influential ethnic group of Chinese Malaysians
               will lose further political influence due to a shrinking percentage of the Malaysian population.
               This can lead to frictions and conflicts between the different ethnic groups.
               Since elections are taking place in both countries, the population strength of certain societal
               groups matters. Since there are no statistical information available of the voting patterns of
               people older than 65 years, it is very hard to predict what will be the electoral effects of the
               ageing process of both populations. In both countries rural Islamic people have the highest birth
               rates.  Consequently  it  is  plausible  that  this  group  of  the  population  will  gain  some  more
               political influence in both countries in the near future.



               References
               Chai Sen Tyng/ Tengku Aizan Hamid (2015): Population Ageing and the Malaysian Chinese:
                 Issues and Challenges, in: Malaysian Journal of Chinese Studies, Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 1-13
               Augustin, Robin (2017): Challenges posed by an ageing population, Free Malaysia Today, 17
                 May 2017, available at:
                 http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2017/05/17/challenges-posed-by-an-
                 ageing-population/ [accessed 13 November 2017]
               Database Global Political Demography (2018), provided by Goerres, Achim/Vanhuysse,
                 Pieter/Krause, Sebastian, University Duisburg-Essen
               Department of Statistics Malaysia, Vital Statistics 2015, available at:
                 https://www.dosm.gov.my/v1/index.php?r=column/cthemeByCat&cat=165&bul_id=eUM5
                 SGRBZndGUHRCZTc2RldqNGMrUT09&menu_id=L0pheU43NWJwRWVSZklWdzQ4Tl
                 hUUT09 [accessed 13 November 2017]
               Dhesi, Daljit (2017): Ageing population to drive new business opportunities in Asia, in: The
                 Star Online, 19 September 2017, available at:



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