Page 71 - AEI Insights 2019 - Vol. 5, Issue 1
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Ziegenhain, 2019
Another important issue is that there are regional diversities in terms of demography in both
countries. Generally, the more rural and less developed parts of both countries (in Indonesia
particularly the Eastern islands or Kelantan/Terengganu in Malaysia) have a significantly
higher birth rate than the more developed urban areas (such as Java). Mass internal migration
into urban areas or rising contradictions between centre and periphery might occur.
Migration from other countries will also affect the population policies in both countries.
Malaysia will continue to see an influx of (mostly relatively unskilled) labour migrants from
many South and Southeast Asian countries including Indonesia. Many of them have the target
to live permanently there and/or become Malaysian citizens as the socio-economic situation is
regarded as more favourable than that of their country of origin. Indonesia, in contrast, will
have a continued outflow of (mostly relatively unskilled) labour to its neighbour countries and
the Middle East.
It is not yet well researched to what extent all these demographic changes will affect the
cornerstones of political order and regime stability in both societies. Indonesia’s fragile
democracy, which is the second largest in the world after India, will probably deal better with
the demographic challenges in political terms than Malaysia. The more pluralistic national
political landscape and the high degree of local autonomy in a highly decentralized political
system are more prone to adapt to societal pressures than the more centralized power structures
in the neighbour country.
In Malaysia, which is a semi-democracy or a half-authoritarian political system, the
demographic changes will bring probably some regime instability as politics is dominated by
race-based political parties. The economically influential ethnic group of Chinese Malaysians
will lose further political influence due to a shrinking percentage of the Malaysian population.
This can lead to frictions and conflicts between the different ethnic groups.
Since elections are taking place in both countries, the population strength of certain societal
groups matters. Since there are no statistical information available of the voting patterns of
people older than 65 years, it is very hard to predict what will be the electoral effects of the
ageing process of both populations. In both countries rural Islamic people have the highest birth
rates. Consequently it is plausible that this group of the population will gain some more
political influence in both countries in the near future.
References
Chai Sen Tyng/ Tengku Aizan Hamid (2015): Population Ageing and the Malaysian Chinese:
Issues and Challenges, in: Malaysian Journal of Chinese Studies, Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 1-13
Augustin, Robin (2017): Challenges posed by an ageing population, Free Malaysia Today, 17
May 2017, available at:
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2017/05/17/challenges-posed-by-an-
ageing-population/ [accessed 13 November 2017]
Database Global Political Demography (2018), provided by Goerres, Achim/Vanhuysse,
Pieter/Krause, Sebastian, University Duisburg-Essen
Department of Statistics Malaysia, Vital Statistics 2015, available at:
https://www.dosm.gov.my/v1/index.php?r=column/cthemeByCat&cat=165&bul_id=eUM5
SGRBZndGUHRCZTc2RldqNGMrUT09&menu_id=L0pheU43NWJwRWVSZklWdzQ4Tl
hUUT09 [accessed 13 November 2017]
Dhesi, Daljit (2017): Ageing population to drive new business opportunities in Asia, in: The
Star Online, 19 September 2017, available at:
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