Page 29 - AEI Insights 2018 Vol 4 Issue 1

AEI Insights, Vol 4, Issue 1, 2018

Franco – German alliance evidenced by the unprecedented joint cabinet meeting between these
two governments in June 2017. The stalemate elections in Germany in September 2017
provided concern for the Merkel German leadership of the European Union integration as well
as the first time presence of far right Alternative for Germany (Afd) in the Bundestag. This was
equally noted with the high level support for the centre-right candidate in the Australian
elections in October 2017 making clear to the established parties that they need to be concerned
about their political direction. Fear and scare mongering about migration clearly played a role
in the election outcomes here.

There is even discussion of establishing a joint Eurozone finance minister as well as a possible
a Eurozone budget. The threats by the US to withdraw its global leadership, through a desire
for more protectionism and not want to engage with China is an opening for the European
Union to make its bid for global leadership. This it can only do as a united and combined
regional bloc. As in the past, the crises facing the European Union are often the call to arms to
make the next leap. This might be exactly that moment.

Conclusion

European integration has been for decades a roller coaster with good and not so good moments.
Generally the difficult times have always been justified as a necessary evil but that better times
would always prevail. From a more serious standpoint European integration took strategic
directions which would be de facto potentially problematic. The last years of European
integration however have created significant uncertainty and concern. The Juncker White Paper
is a testimony to the gravity of feeling and the need for a decisive but legitimate project with
which to proceed. The solutions from the top has exhausted its capital and now more than in
any previous moment the feeling is that there needs to be member state buy in in a way that
was never requested before. There is no one silver bullet to overcome the obstacles like there
is no one factor bringing down the EU. While the position of the European Commission is to
be cautious and allow the member states to make their call, the leadership of Germany and
France appear to have made that decision.

The period of global political uncertainty will not come to an end any time soon. As economic
prosperity only slowly improves, and who knows for how long, many of the desperation calls
and right wing vacillations in the polls will always remain a warning of concern. In the
meantime, the Brexit result and the new US administration have propelled the leaders of the
European Union to break the mould of “business as usual”. While the results from the White
Paper are not expected to emerge until late December 2017, the expectation is that there will
be more decisive steps for deeper and greater integration by the leading members even if this
means with fewer members. This may mean European Integration of the few but committed
and peripheral membership by the less committed. The European Union, and its key leaders
appear to have few other choices.

References

Armingeon K. and Guthmann K., 2013, Democracy in crisis? The declining support for
national democracy in European countries, 2007-2011, European Journal of Political
Research 2013, pp. 1-20.
BBC 2014, UK European election results, http://www.bbc.com/news/events/vote2014/eu-uk-
results, viewed 7 September 2017.

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