Page 26 - AEI Insights 2018 Vol 4 Issue 1

Mascitelli, 2018

announcement, some felt that this was a risky venture by Cameron and he was outing Britain’s
credibility and membership in the EUU for the sake of rumbling in the right wing of the Tory
Party. Some hoped it was a commitment he would renege on as it was wagering a lot on just to
placate some loud noises in the Tory Party and as a way to undermine the workings of the
United Kingdom Independence party (UKIP). It was a risk Cameron lost big time when soon
after the results of the referendum Cameron announced his resignation and plundered the UK
into a political crisis of massive proportion.

As the UK awoke to the new reality of what the referendum had decided, political crisis,
leadership bids and an unchartered journey was about to begin. The UK was split along
generational lines, some regional lines and to some extent class lines. Moreover breaches were
created with the soft border between Northern Ireland and Ireland now created alarm in the
possible undoing of the peace progress between the two parts of Ireland. The shock of the
Brexit caused much paralysis and uncertainty as speculation took over and catastrophic
scenarios received much attention as each side began contemplating what this Brexit might
mean. Only month later Donald Trump won the 2016 Presidential race to the White House and
after complimenting the UK for having made the decision to exit the EU it set about attacking
many of the EU assumptions thereby opening up the Trump mode of rule. Trump’s other
remarks about NATO and the EU being a “German vehicle” did not make the mood within the
European Union any better as European Union integration tumbled further down and
confidence continued to fall. Many in the EU concluded that the Trump approach towards the
Trans Pacific partnership (TPP) and the NAFTA would produce a new negative phase of
discussion with the European Union and the TTIP seemed almost dead in the water. The Trade
Commissioner for the EU Commission declared a holding pattern for the TTIP an everybody
tried to work out what the US would do.

On the EU side, the Brexit result was a shock bringing frustration and resignation to a long
period of UK marginalisation and exceptionalness. There was a sense of defeat and hurt though
each member state leader restated the need to press ahead with European integration. While
many feared what could come with the British, there was a desire not to dwell and hope it
would not come. Despite some initial knee jerk anger, the EU settled into a position of rational
negotiations for the triggering of Article 50 from the Lisbon Treaty and the establishment of a
Brexit structure to negotiation with the British for their departure. As this was progressing, two
elections in the Netherlands and France provided alternative messages about the immediate
future of the EU. In The Netherlands, the Party for Freedom (PVV) led by Geert Wilders
threatened the traditional People's Party for Freedom and Democracy led by Rutte for
government losing by little. In the case of France two months later, Emmanuel Macron won a
stunning victory against all parties and in the run off against Marie Le Pen. His victory was
interpreted at the French level as an overturning of the weak and indecisive approach of his
predecessor of Hollande and at the European level a sense of relief for the European project.
Moreover, the Macron saw the revival of the Franco-German leadership dialogue which had
momentarily gone into disrepair with new ideas for a renewed vision.

Prospects for further European Integration: The White paper plan of action

Even before the results of the Dutch and French elections, The European Union faced another
anniversary of importance – The sixtieth anniversary of the Rome Treaty in March 2017. The
event was celebrated in Rome but its celebrations did not stop at looking at the past. Given its
brush with massive political turbulence through Brexit and the Trump elections, the

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