Page 54 - AEI Insights 2018 Vol 4 Issue 1

AEI Insights, Vol 4, Issue 1, 2018

Union based on Budapest being party to the relevant UN agreements. The Dublin process
merely provides a common solution to a problem that has been deemed by EU member-states,
including Hungary, to be beyond the capabilities of any single country.

Based on this, the position of the Government becomes clearer. The refugee crisis has created
an extraordinary influx of people. Hungary alone had to deal with as six fold increase from
2014 to 2015 in asylum seekers. (Bevándorlási és Menekültügyi Hivatal/b) Processing such an
amount of people would require extraordinary effort. Furthermore, there are concerns that due
to the chaos created by the increase in people there is a pressure to rubber-stamp applications
rather than determining whether someone is really entitled to asylum, allowing economic
migrants to receive refugee status. The Government’s solution is to remove itself from the
problem by sealing the country’s borders. Hungarian border fortifications facilitated an 81
percent reduction in the number of asylum seekers from 2015 to 2016. (Bevándorlási és
Menekültügyi Hivatal/b) At the same time the Government refuses to cooperate with the
Dublin process, especially when it comes to quotas for the resettlement of refugees. Looking
at the country itself, the Government’s resistance is understandable. Hungary is a relatively
small country with modest economic means. Furthermore, it is a demographically
homogeneous country. 85+ percent of the population is ethnic Hungarian, with almost 15
percent being unidentified. The largest minority (Romani) is a mere 3 percent. (CIA) The
overwhelming majority is either Christian or non-religious. Besides Christianity and Judaism,
no other religion has a major presence in the country. A melting pot the country is not. The
resettlement of a large number of asylum seekers presents fears that it would alter the
demographic composition of the country and negatively impact the social fabric of existing
communities, especially those outside major urban centres. Integrating asylum seekers would
be also difficult: Employment opportunities and funds for welfare are in short supply. Even if
the EU offers significant assistance to resettle refugees, it would only create the perception of
creating a ‘privileged class’ that was extended assistance the EU and Hungary does not extend
to its own citizens. This perception is exploited by the Government when it directly references
the supposed financial assistance it would be required to provide to migrants. 9 million HUF
is more than what most Hungarians earn working for years. The idea of accepting extraordinary
numbers of refugees is unsurprisingly highly unpopular domestically.

While it allows the maintenance of the status quo, the key problem with this approach is that it
violates international law. By shutting out the refugee crisis, Hungary is failing to meet its
international obligations both to the European Union and the international community at large.
Hungary does not have the right under international law to determine whether someone is a
refugee or a migrant without a due asylum process. Furthermore, as Hungary takes steps to
disincentivize asylum seekers it only diverts the flow of people increasing pressure on other
EU states to handle them.

The coercive powers of the European Union

Key central elements of the two National Consultation questionnaires are the Government’s
perception of attack and its fear of punishment. This references the EU’s infringement
procedures. The EU’s primary enforcement powers are vested in the European Court of Justice.
As a member-state of the European Union the rules and laws created by the EU through its
various legislative organs and procedures (e.g. the European Council and the European
Parliament) are legally binding. Non-compliance triggers the aforementioned infringement
process (European Commission/a), which ultimately leads to the ECJ engaging in adjudication
and potentially determining fines for non-compliant states. This is a fairly straightforward

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